HS2 costs soar towards £103bn as first Birmingham trains pushed back to late 2030s

The cost of completing HS2 could rise as high as £102.7bn, according to the latest official estimate, with the first trains between London and Birmingham now not expected to run until between 2036 and 2039. The figures represent a further sharp escalation in the price and timetable of what was once envisaged as a transformative national rail project.

Ministers have been told that the remaining cost of the programme now sits between £87.7bn and £102.7bn in 2026 prices, with the top of that range increasingly used as the headline figure in public discussion. The full line to a central London terminus at Euston is not now projected to open until between 2040 and 2043.

The numbers lay bare how far the scheme has drifted from its original ambitions. Once planned as a high-speed Y-shaped network reaching deep into the North, HS2 has been progressively scaled back, leaving a far smaller railway at a far larger cost.

Why the costs have spiralled

Officials attribute around two-thirds of the most recent cost increases to problems with delivery and programme management, rather than to the scope of the railway itself. The remaining third is linked to inflation, which has hit the UK construction sector hard since the original budget was set.

In an attempt to claw back time and money, the line's maximum operating speed is to be reduced from 360km/h to 320km/h, a change officials say could save up to £2.5bn and at least a year in delivery. Critics argue the move underlines how the project's defining feature, its speed, is being sacrificed to control costs.

• Estimated cost to complete now as high as £102.7bn in 2026 prices.
• First Old Oak Common to Birmingham services expected between 2036 and 2039.
• Full line to Euston projected for between 2040 and 2043.
• Top speed cut from 360km/h to 320km/h to save money and time.
• Around two-thirds of recent increases blamed on delivery and management problems.

Where construction stands

Despite the spiralling figures, physical progress on the ground continues. Excavation of the final major tunnel, running from Old Oak Common in west London to Euston, began in January, and around 70 per cent of the project's vast earthworks programme has now been delivered.

Almost 300,000 tonnes of steel have been used in construction so far, representing close to 69 per cent of the total required for the railway. Supporters argue that with so much already built, abandoning the scheme now would waste the investment already sunk into it.

Tens of thousands of jobs are tied to the programme along its route, from tunnellers and engineers to apprentices and supply-chain firms, and industry leaders warn that further uncertainty over the project's future would ripple through a construction sector already grappling with thin order books. The scheme's defenders insist that the answer to past failures is better delivery, not retreat.

“The brutal truth is that HS2 will cost more than double its original budget, run slower than promised and serve less than half the network first envisaged. The public is entitled to ask how a single project went so badly off track.”

Political fallout

The revised figures have reignited a fierce political argument over the value of the scheme and the management failures that allowed costs to balloon. MPs on the public accounts committee have repeatedly warned about weak oversight, and the cancellation of the northern leg continues to draw criticism from leaders in the regions that were promised better connections.

Ministers insist a reset of the delivery plan will bring tighter control of costs, but acknowledge that confidence in the programme has been badly shaken.

“We are determined to grip this programme and rebuild trust with the taxpayer. The reset plan is about honesty on cost and a relentless focus on delivering the railway that has already been started.”

Background

HS2 was conceived as a high-speed line to slash journey times between London, the Midlands and the North while freeing capacity on existing lines. Successive revisions saw the eastern leg to Leeds dropped and the northern leg to Manchester cancelled, leaving a core route between London and Birmingham at the heart of the project.

Each new estimate has pushed the cost higher and the opening date further away, making the scheme a byword for the difficulties of delivering major infrastructure in Britain.

What happens next: the Government's reset delivery plan will be tested against the revised cost and timetable over the coming years, with the first trains to Birmingham still more than a decade away. Pressure will remain on HS2 Ltd and ministers to demonstrate that the latest figures mark the ceiling on costs rather than another staging post on the way up.