Teachers Edge Towards Summer Strikes as Government Prepares Pay Verdict

England's schools are edging back towards national strike action. In an indicative ballot reported by Tes, 96% of National Education Union teacher members rejected the government's pay offer — 6.5% spread across three years, unfunded — and more than 90% signalled willingness to strike over it. Ministers must now decide the 2026 pay award knowing the largest education union has, in effect, pre-rejected the mood music.

The offer's structure explains the anger as much as its size. Spread over three years, 6.5% amounts to little more than 2% annually — below most inflation forecasts — and 'unfunded' means schools would absorb the cost from existing budgets, converting a pay rise into a cuts programme elsewhere in the building.

At a glance

• 96 per cent of NEU teacher members voted to reject the Government's offer
• More than 90 per cent of teachers indicated willingness to strike
• The DfE proposed 6.5 per cent over three years, unfunded
• Last year's award was 4 per cent for 2025/26, partly funded
• The Government's decision is expected before the summer term ends

Why 'unfunded' is the fighting word

School budgets are dominated by staffing, so an unfunded award forces heads to choose between fewer teaching assistants, larger classes, reduced enrichment — or deficits. Head teachers' associations have been as critical of unfunded awards as the classroom unions, a rare alignment across the profession's leadership.

Last year's settlement — 4% for 2025/26, partly funded — set the reference point. Against it, an unfunded 6.5% over three years reads as a real-terms squeeze with the funding safety net removed.

The retention crisis beneath the pay fight

Pay is the visible dispute; the structural problem is a profession leaking people. Recruitment targets in key secondary subjects are missed year after year, and early-career attrition remains stubborn. Every pay round is now also an argument about whether teaching can compete with graduate alternatives.

The union's case is that pay restoration is retention policy: real-terms pay sits well below its 2010 level, and no workload initiative compensates for a salary that lags the graduate market. The government's case is fiscal: multi-year restraint is the price of stability across the public sector.

The ballot arithmetic

An indicative ballot is a temperature check, not a mandate — formal industrial action requires a statutory postal ballot clearing turnout thresholds. But 96% rejection on a strong indicative turnout is the strongest possible platform from which to launch one, and union leadership has prepared members accordingly.

The last national schools strikes, in 2023, closed classrooms across England and ended in a funded settlement. Both sides remember that arc, which shapes the brinkmanship now.

What parents should watch

The timeline runs through the pay review body process: the Government's decision on the 2026 award is expected before the summer term ends. An improved or funded offer could reset the dispute; confirmation of the rejected package would likely trigger a formal ballot in the autumn term.

Any statutory ballot, notice periods and action short of strike would follow — meaning the earliest serious disruption, if it comes, lands in the 2026/27 school year.

What happens next

Ministers weigh the pay review body's recommendation against a spending envelope with no slack; the NEU weighs escalation against public opinion that supported teachers in 2023 but tires quickly of closed schools.

The unfunded question may decide it. A smaller award with funding attached could land better than a larger one schools must self-finance — a nuance that will define whether September opens with negotiation or picket lines.