Makerfield by-election: Andy Burnham bids for Commons seat in gamble that could topple Starmer

Voters in the Greater Manchester constituency of Makerfield go to the polls on Thursday in a by-election that has become one of the most consequential single contests in recent British political history. On paper it is a fight to fill one Commons seat. In practice it is widely seen as the moment that could determine whether Sir Keir Starmer survives as prime minister.

The contest was triggered by the resignation of the sitting Labour MP, Josh Simons, who stood down to clear the way for Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, to seek a return to Parliament. A seat in the Commons is the precondition for Burnham to mount a challenge for the Labour leadership, something he has signalled he would do if he wins.

Polling during the campaign has pointed to a comfortable Burnham victory. Surveys carried out between 2 and 12 June put Labour, with Burnham as candidate, on around 49 per cent, well ahead of Reform UK on roughly 37 per cent. But the size of the majority, and the swing against the government, will be scrutinised every bit as closely as the result itself.

Why one seat carries so much weight

Makerfield matters because of the man standing rather than the territory at stake. Burnham, a former Labour cabinet minister who has built a formidable independent profile as a regional mayor, has positioned himself as the candidate of a different, more radical Labour offer. His allies argue that the party needs a change of direction and that only a leader with a fresh mandate can halt the advance of Reform UK and the Greens.

The by-election follows a turbulent few weeks for Sir Keir, who has faced a wave of ministerial resignations and a public revolt by backbenchers demanding he set out a timetable for his departure. A strong Burnham win would hand the rebels a champion with a Westminster platform; a weak one, or a shock upset, could change the calculus entirely.

“If the people of Makerfield put their trust in me, I intend to use that voice to argue for the change this country is crying out for.”

Reform UK and the opposition challenge

Nigel Farage's Reform UK has thrown resources into the seat, sensing an opportunity to embarrass Labour in its heartland. The party has framed the contest as a verdict on the government's record on immigration, the cost of living and tax. Although the polls suggest it will fall short, a strong second place would reinforce Reform's claim to be the principal challenger across the north of England.

The other parties face a more difficult task. The Conservatives have struggled to gain traction in former industrial seats, while the Greens, fresh from a historic by-election win earlier in the year, hope to demonstrate that their appeal extends beyond the cities. For each of them, the headline figure to watch is Labour's share relative to its 2024 general election performance.

• The by-election is being held on 18 June 2026 following the resignation of Josh Simons.
• Andy Burnham is standing for Labour with the explicit aim of returning to the Commons.
• Recent polling put Labour on around 49 per cent and Reform UK on around 37 per cent.
• A win would allow Burnham to mount a challenge for the Labour leadership.
• The result is being read as a proxy verdict on Sir Keir Starmer's future.

Background

The unusual spectacle of a sitting metro mayor seeking a Commons seat has prompted constitutional questions about whether the two roles can be held together, and for how long. House of Commons Library researchers have noted there is no legal bar to an MP also serving as a mayor, although the practical demands of both jobs are considerable and Burnham would be expected to make arrangements for his mayoral responsibilities.

The by-election also sits within a wider story of electoral fragmentation. Labour has suffered a series of damaging results in local elections and by-elections over the past year, with Reform UK and the Greens making significant gains and the long-standing two-party system under visible strain.

What happens next

Counting will take place after polls close on Thursday evening, with a result expected in the early hours of Friday. If Burnham wins as expected, attention will shift instantly to whether and when he formally launches a leadership bid, and how Downing Street responds. A surprise on the night, by contrast, would buy Sir Keir time and deflate his critics, leaving the future of the government finely balanced on the outcome in a single northern constituency.