Reform stretches lead to nine points as Labour's polling collapse deepens

The political earthquake of Sir Keir Starmer's resignation lands on ground that has been shifting beneath Labour for more than a year. The numbers tell the story bluntly: in the run-up to the Prime Minister's departure on 22 June, Reform UK held a commanding lead in voting-intention polling, comfortably ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives, who are scrapping for a distant second place.

PollCheck's seven-poll moving average on 20 June put Reform on 27.1%, Labour on 19.4% and the Conservatives on 19.1%, with the Greens on 12.7% and the Liberal Democrats on 12.1%. A YouGov survey conducted at the turn of the month told a similar tale, placing Reform on 27% against 18% apiece for Labour and the Conservatives, with the Greens up at 15% and the Lib Dems on 13%.

For a governing party not two years into a landslide-winning parliament, the scale of the decline is historic. Labour took 33% at the July 2024 general election; on current polling it has surrendered close to half of that vote in the space of 23 months.

A lead built and held

Reform's advantage is not a flicker. The party drew level with Labour in the early months of 2025 and pulled clear from May of that year, building a sustained lead it has now held for more than 12 months. The momentum that carried it to heavy gains in the May 2026 local elections has not faded.

What makes the picture so alarming for Labour strategists is the breadth of the leakage. The vote that delivered Sir Keir his majority has not flowed to a single rival; it has fragmented towards Reform on the right, the Greens on the left, and the Liberal Democrats in the middle, leaving Labour squeezed from every direction at once.

An MRP that points to government

Headline shares are one thing; seats are another. YouGov's most recent large-scale MRP modelling suggested that, were a general election held immediately, a Reform UK government would be a near-certainty, with the party converting its lead into a parliamentary majority under first-past-the-post.

Seat projections at this distance from any actual contest are illustrative rather than predictive, and the next election need not come before 2029. But the modelling underlines why the question of who replaces Sir Keir has become inseparable from the question of how, and whether, Labour can claw back ground before voters are asked again.

• Reform UK: 27% (PollCheck average) / 27% (YouGov)
• Labour: 19.4% / 18%
• Conservatives: 19.1% / 18%
• Greens: 12.7% / 15%
• Liberal Democrats: 12.1% / 13%

The approval problem

Beneath the headline figures sat a deeper rot in the now-departed Prime Minister's personal standing. Pollsters had Sir Keir's net approval at around minus 44 in June, among the lowest readings for a sitting premier at this stage of a parliament in modern polling memory.

Approval ratings that poor tend to drag a party's vote down with them, and the hope inside Labour is that a change of leader resets the personal numbers even if the structural challenge remains.

“This is the biggest collapse in support for a governing party this early in a parliament that we have on record. A new leader buys Labour a hearing, not a recovery.”

Background

Labour returned to power in July 2024 with a commanding Commons majority but a relatively shallow vote share by historic standards, leaving it exposed to the fragmentation that has defined British politics since. Disputes over welfare, defence spending and a string of policy U-turns eroded both the party's poll rating and the Prime Minister's authority.

The May 2026 local elections crystallised the crisis, with Reform advancing and Labour losing ground heavily, setting in train the rebellion that ultimately forced Sir Keir's hand.

What happens next: pollsters will be watching for any leadership bounce once a successor is installed, but the structural challenge of a fractured centre-left vote and a resurgent Reform will outlast any single change at the top.