Immigration becomes a fault line as Labour leadership race opens

Immigration is set to become a central battleground in the contest to lead the Labour Party after Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation on 22 June 2026, with nominations due to open on 9 July and close on 16 July.

The race follows a turbulent period in which Andy Burnham won a by-election with a commanding share of the vote, positioning himself for a tilt at the leadership, while other senior figures including Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood are seen as likely contenders.

Whoever wins inherits a system mid-overhaul and a political landscape in which Reform UK and the Conservatives have moved sharply right on asylum and the European Convention on Human Rights.

A divided field

Labour's potential candidates span a broad spectrum. Reported names include Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, David Lammy, Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband, each likely to be pressed on how far they would continue or soften the current asylum and returns programme.

The next leader must decide whether to defend reforms such as 30-month temporary protection and the visa brake, or to recalibrate towards a message that emphasises both control and compassion, a balance the party has struggled to strike.

• Starmer announced his resignation on 22 June 2026
• Nominations open 9 July and close 16 July
• Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood among likely contenders
• Immigration and the ECHR expected to feature heavily in the contest

The ECHR question

The convention has become a defining dividing line. Reform UK has set out plans that would involve leaving the ECHR, disapplying the 1951 Refugee Convention and replacing the Human Rights Act with a British Bill of Rights. The Conservatives, under Kemi Badenoch, have established a commission to examine withdrawal, with the leader saying she believes the UK will 'likely need to leave'.

Labour has so far defended continued membership, leaving its leadership candidates to decide whether to hold that line or shift ground in response to the political pressure from the right.

“The next Labour leader cannot duck the ECHR question. It now sits at the centre of the entire immigration debate.”

Reform and the Conservatives set the pace

Among Reform UK members, leaving the ECHR and detaining and deporting people who arrive irregularly rank as top priorities, and analysts have questioned whether some of the party's plans are legally feasible without unprecedented changes to domestic and international law.

With Reform riding high in the polls, the pressure on both main parties to demonstrate toughness has intensified, shaping the terms on which the Labour contest will be fought.

“The centre of gravity on immigration has shifted. Every leadership candidate is now answering questions framed by Reform's agenda.”

Background

The contest comes against a backdrop of falling net migration, a vast asylum appeals backlog and a government programme that has shortened refugee leave, tightened visa routes and toughened enforcement. Public dissatisfaction with immigration policy has been a persistent drag on the government's standing.

The Institute for Government's analysis shows clear blue water between the parties, with Reform and the Conservatives offering the hardest line on asylum and deportations and Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Greens occupying more moderate positions.

What happens next

As nominations open in July, candidates will be forced to spell out their stance on the ECHR, deportations and the in-train asylum reforms. The winner's approach will determine whether the government's hardening trajectory continues, accelerates or is partly reversed, with consequences for thousands of people caught in the system.